Aston Villa couldn’t stop winning earlier in the season but the last two home matches have added an exclamation mark to the end of that scintillating run.
Villa have lost their last two at home, both in the Premier League, and got what they deserved on both occasions. Against Everton and Brentford, Villa were too passive and too patient. There are good reasons for both sometimes but they look to me like a team who’d benefit from imposing themselves.
Manager Unai Emery will be acutely aware of the importance of a win, not just because the Champions League qualification buffer behind Villa in third is shrinking, but because the very fact they’re third in the first place is because of their home form.
By the time this match kicks off, Villa can expect to be in fourth place. Manchester United go to West Ham United as red-hot favourites on Tuesday night and would go past Villa on goal difference with a win.
Chelsea, currently behind Villa and United in fifth, play at home against Leeds United and would move within a point of Villa if they win. Their goal difference is better than both of the teams above them, so if United were to get turned over it would only take a draw to move Chelsea into the top four.
The pressure’s on Villa now. This wobble doesn’t have to be a fatal one. I still think they’re good enough to stay in third or fourth even with the injury problems that have dogged the midfield so far in 2026. But there are matches they simply have to win for that to be the case, and this is one of them.
Villa have beaten Brighton already this season, winning 4-3 in a crazy midweek game at the Amex Stadium at the start of December. The Seagulls have deteriorated significantly since then. After Villa spiked their unbeaten home run, the results started to dry up.
Emery acknowledged in his pre-match press conference that Brighton are better than their points total suggests, something many of their supporters would agree with.
But the simple fact of the matter is that this is a home fixture against a team starting the week in 14th, a team they’ve already defeated. Only victory will suffice.
It might be said that Emery was a little cagey about Villa’s injury news when he spoke to reporters on Tuesday but the thrust of what he said is that nothing has really changed.
Boubacar Kamara is sidelined long-term and his midfield comrades Youri Tielemans and John McGinn are both still out for several weeks with their respective injuries.
Right-back Andrés García is expected to be absent for a couple more weeks, judging by the originally indicated timeline, while winger Alysson remains out of the squad and out of the spotlight with whatever knock he’s been managing since he arrived at the club last month.
Watkins scores goals against Brighton. This much we know. Leaving Villa’s centre-forward out of the line-up against the Seagulls would be a silly move even in the shadow of a pretty poor showing on Saturday, and there’s next to no chance Emery does so.
I do think there’s a chance the manager could be tempted to use Watkins and Tammy Abraham in the same team for a midweek home fixture like this, hoping to capitalise on the possession Villa can expect in the opposition half.
All things considered, it’s likelier he goes with an unchanged front four. Emery will gamble on it at some point and it’ll catch the opposition on the hop. I can’t see it being this game.
There’s little room for flexibility in the centre of midfield, where Amadou Onana and Douglas Luiz will start the game.
In fact, I think there will only be a couple of changes and that they’ll be in the area where Villa made costly mistakes against Bournemouth. After being swapped out at the weekend, I’m predicting that both Ian Maatsen and Pau Torres will be restored to the line-up.
Villa’s home game against Brighton will be broadcast live on TNT Sports 3 in the UK.
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➡️ How to watch Aston Villa v Brighton & Hove Albion: kick-off time, TV channels and streams
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