Bitcoin (BTC) is set to close its 2025 yearly candle in the red, with its current price around $87,713, below the year’s opening level of approximately $93,374.
To avoid a negative close, BTC must rise by at least 6.24% in the final three days of the year.
“3 days for Bitcoin to recover and close up on the year. If not, this will be the first post-halving year we close in the red. 6.24% required to make this a green candle,” said Puckrin.
Bitcoin reached an all-time high above $125,000 in October, just before a historic market crash disrupted the rally and pushed crypto prices downward.
Since hitting its peak, Bitcoin has lost roughly 30% of its value, forming a local bottom around $80,000 in November.
This decline has sparked debate among analysts about whether Bitcoin’s bull market is over or if a new bear market is beginning.
Many crypto influencers and analysts are focused on macroeconomic conditions and liquidity flows as critical factors influencing BTC’s trajectory.
Analysts continue to monitor these variables closely to determine if a recovery is likely in the coming months.
The US Federal Reserve’s actions have become a key point of attention for Bitcoin investors.
BTC has been trading below its 365-day moving average since November, breaking the structural uptrend that began in 2023.
Lower interest rates historically act as catalysts for risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies, as fresh liquidity tends to boost demand.
The Federal Reserve implemented three 25 basis point rate cuts during 2025.
However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell offered mixed guidance at the December FOMC meeting.
“There is no risk-free path for policy,” Powell said, raising uncertainty about a potential rate cut in the next meeting scheduled for January.
Currently, only 18.8% of investors anticipate a rate cut in January, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Bitcoin’s ability to close the year in the green hinges on both price action and external economic factors.
A failure to recover in the remaining days would mark the first post-halving year with a red candle, a rare occurrence historically.
If BTC can rally in the next three days, it could signal renewed momentum heading into 2026.
Investors will likely weigh macroeconomic developments, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and liquidity conditions when forming their outlook for the new year.
Technical analysts are also watching key support and resistance levels closely to gauge the strength of any potential recovery.
Bitcoin’s end-of-year performance could set the tone for the broader crypto market in 2026, determining whether risk appetite returns or caution dominates investor sentiment.
The post Bitcoin Faces Red Year-End Candle, Needs Recovery to Avoid First Post-Halving Loss appeared first on Gooner Daily.
