Joel Dahmen’s chase for a PGA Tour card was arguably the most resonant story of the fall season. With 125 cards available, the Tour fan favorite entered the final week of the season at No. 124, with his future in serious jeopardy. A double-bogey 7 late in Saturday’s round appeared to doom his chances — but then he bounced back with a Sunday 64 that catapulted him back to No. 124, exactly where he’d started the week and just inside the number.

But according to the folks at DataGolf, you could make the case that Dahmen’s 2025 PGA Tour status could actually make it tougher to return for him to return in 2026. Had he missed out on the top 125 Dahmen may have opted to play a Korn Ferry Tour schedule, and per their calculations it’s actually easier to earn PGA Tour status through the KFT than to keep it while on Tour.

To be clear, nobody is suggesting Dahmen should have punted on finishing top 125. Being on the PGA Tour is the entire point, after all. The money, the majors, the points, the perks, the dream, the upside. Dahmen’s job is to maximize all of that, not to merely retain his card for 2026. It’s also tough to project what Dahmen’s 2025 would look like had he finished No. 126, for instance, and played a mixture of KFT and PGA Tour events. But it’s still an interesting lens through which to explore the changes to the PGA Tour’s structure, which will see cards reduced from 125 to 100 at the end of next season and reduce KFT graduates from 30 to 20.

What does the math say? Per DataGolf’s excellent newsletter, the 100th-best player on Tour has averaged +0.16 “True strokes gained” per round over the last 20 years, though in the last two years, in the LIV-poaching era, that number has dropped to +0.05. But compare that with the No. 20 position on the KFT, which has averaged -0.36 True SG/round. By that measure, the same quality of golf could earn you a PGA Tour card from the KFT and lose you your job on the PGA Tour. (This was true with the previous card format, too.) It also makes sense that KFT graduates often have a tough time keeping their cards; the same level that got them to the Tour isn’t always good enough to keep them there.

Dahmen didn’t know those numbers, naturally. But he, like every Tour pro, is aware that keeping his job is only getting tougher.

“I have to improve a ton,” he said after his final round, then checked himself. “Not a ton, but I have to get better to be in the top 100.

“I’ve said this for a long time: my ball-striking is Top 30 in the world. I’ve just got to get a little better with the other things and be more consistent with my approach to Thursday and Friday rounds to play how I can play.”

That checks out: In arguably golf’s most important statistic, approach play, Dahmen was No. 16 on Tour this season. He was excellent off the tee, too, finishing 40th in strokes gained in that department. He actually led the Tour in average proximity to the hole, averaging six inches closer than World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. But he struggled on Thursdays (145th in scoring average) compared to Fridays (14th, more than a stroke and a half better). He finished the season 181st in putting, too. In other words, there are plenty of bright spots but room for improvement, too.

“I showed how I can play under pressure today, like, bringing it,” Dahmen concluded. “And my Friday round as well, that was I think one of the better rounds on Friday at Seaside [when he rallied to make the cut]. Two of the biggest pressure moments of my career I showed up. And I can take that going forward and might as well start at Sony.”

It’s safe to say Dahmen will take his chances on the big Tour instead.

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